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We explore the effect of the recent large unemployment shock in Spain on people's beliefs about the role of effort as a determinant of economic position. To do that, we use a series of Spanish public opinion surveys between 2010 and 2017, matched with regional-level unemployment data. We find that people have attributed a larger role to luck in the Spanish provinces where the unemployment rate increased more during the economic recession. This finding persists after controlling for a series of demographic, socio-economic and ideological individual-level variables. In addition, we find that poorer, lower educated individuals and those who position themselves as more left-wing and “socialist” have adjusted their beliefs more, while individuals who identify as “conservative” have adjusted their beliefs less.
